Advanced Statistics

Probability Distributions

๐Ÿ“Š Advanced Statistics
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Probability Distributions

Model random phenomena using binomial, normal, and Poisson distributions.

A probability distribution describes how probability is distributed across the values of a random variable. Discrete distributions (like binomial and Poisson) deal with countable outcomes; continuous distributions (like the normal) assign probabilities to intervals.

Binomial:ย P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1โˆ’p)nโˆ’k,ฮผ=np,โ€…โ€Šฯƒ2=np(1โˆ’p)\text{Binomial: } P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k}p^k(1-p)^{n-k}, \quad \mu = np,\; \sigma^2 = np(1-p)
Poisson:ย P(X=k)=ฮปkeโˆ’ฮปk!,ฮผ=ฯƒ2=ฮป\text{Poisson: } P(X=k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}, \quad \mu = \sigma^2 = \lambda

Binomial Distribution

Fixed n trialsEach trial: success (p) or failure (1โˆ’p)Trials are independentCount the number of successes X

Poisson Distribution

Events occur at average rate ฮป per intervalEvents are independentApproximates binomial when n large, p smallCount rare events: calls/hour, typos/page

Use Binomial when n and p are given. Use Poisson when only the average rate ฮป is given.

Normal:ย f(x)=1ฯƒ2ฯ€eโˆ’(xโˆ’ฮผ)22ฯƒ2\text{Normal: } f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}}
๐ŸŽฒBinomial Calculation
10 fair coin flips. P(exactly 3 heads) = C(10,3)ยท(0.5)ยณยท(0.5)โท = 120ยท(1/1024) โ‰ˆ 0.117.
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Remember This!

Normal approximation to the binomial is valid when np โ‰ฅ 10 and n(1โˆ’p) โ‰ฅ 10. Apply the continuity correction: P(X โ‰ค k) โ‰ˆ P(Z โ‰ค (k + 0.5 โˆ’ np)/โˆš(np(1โˆ’p))).

โœ๏ธ Try It!

A fair coin is flipped 8 times. What is P(exactly 2 heads)?

Take Quiz ๐Ÿ“ โ€” 25 Questions